Metropolitan Initiative - St. Louis

1. Overview of Trends and Issues

Located at the confluence of two great rivers and near the population center of the United States, St. Louis is the nation's 7th largest metropolitan area Ours is a 4,500 square mile region that 2.4 million people call "home" -- a patchwork of neighborhoods, communities, and city centers knit in an interdependent and dynamic economy.

The following pages paint a picture of ' who" and "what" we are, using a variety of social, economic, and environmental indicators germane to the larger discussion of sustainability and regional quality of life

Regional Development Patterns
Like many of the nation's major -cities, the City of St. Louis reached its population peak in 1950 with a population of more than 850,000 individuals. With great locational advantage and excellent transportation infrastructure, St. Louis was a national hub of manufacturing and goods distribution at that time. As the 1950s unfolded, however, a growing sense of overcrowding in the City visions of seemingly-unrestricted opportunity in the suburbs, and a variety of post World War 11 public policy decisions combined to propel the City into decades of remarkable change Residences, cultural and educational institutions, commercial and employment centers marched progressively to the north, west, and east of the core The region took on entirely new dimensions between 1950 and 1990, the population of the St. Louis region grew by 35 percent -but the amount of developed land In, the region increased by 355 percent.¹

Today, the City of St. Louis has approximately 361,000 residents -- 42 percent of the 1950 total -- while neighboring St. Louis county is approaching its peak at more than 1,008,700.² The highest rates of growth continue to occur in the outer ring counties, with the core of population and job loss spreading past the City limits to encompass increasing numbers of older suburban communities. as well, Between 1980 and 1994, 74 of the 93 municipalities within the Interstate 270 / 255 outerbelt lost population.³

Despite these trends, which increasingly compromise the vitality of the region's core, the City of St. Louis is still clearly the "heart" of the region in 1995 -- concentrating 15 percent of the region's population and 25 percent of its jobs within jurisdictional boundaries containing less than 1.5 percent of the developed land of the metropolitan area.

The Built and Natural Environment
These development patterns - and the considerable infrastructure required to link and support them - have consumed ever-accelerating quantities of land, which has had an impact on the region's air and water quality, as well as the region's relationship with the rivers that shaped the settlement and early development of the region. The tenuousness of this relationship was never more clear than it was four years ago when waters left the banks of the Mississippi, Missouri, and Meramec rivers and doused the region with the 'Great Flood of '93." The nature and extent of the damage called into question some of the region's policies and practices regarding floodplain development. A number of these issues remain unresolved.

There currently is no regional plan for development in the Mississippi River corridor, and there also is no regional plan for land use. Planning is undertaken at the county and municipal level, with most zoning decisions left to local officials.

The dispersal of population from the core and the rapid rates of development in outlying areas have left the region with competing infrastructure needs. Older roads, bridges. sewers, and other elements of the built environment have not, in general, been maintained in such a way as to preserve their efficiencies, while the demand for new capital construction in suburban areas continues to increase. Of the 1,133 miles of roads in the urbanized area of the region that are maintained by the State of Missouri, 38 percent are considered to be in "poor" or 'mediocre' condition, for example. A full 33 percent of roads maintained by the State of Illinois in the region have the same classification. preservation of existing infrastructure" was identified as the first priority of the 1995 regional transportation plan.⁴ If any new Capacity is to be added to the system and only traditional funding sources are to be used, the region cannot afford both to grow and to maintain what we have. This is also true for the sewer system that serves the region's core

Dispersed development requires increased travel It is not surprising, then, that the average number of' daily trips made, by individuals in the St. Louis region. increased by 50 percent between 1965 and 1990 Contributing to air pollution in the region that remains at unhealthy levels .⁵ Despite some improvements in, reducing emissions from mobile sources in the 1980s with a new automobile Inspection program and the installation of vapor recovery nozzles at gas stations the region. remains out of compliance with the national clean air stadards for ozone in 1997 St. Louis is currently classified as a "moderate nor-attainment" area under the Clean Air Act Amendments. if the current standard Is maintained, the' I-region will be advanced to serious" standing as a result of ozone readings of the past. -three years. 'The Missouri General Assembly arid state natural resource officials have been unsuccessful in taking trip, necessary steps to fully implement the state's plan to address this problem in St. Louis.

Individuals and Families
Looking at the age distribution of the regions's population, it can be said that St. Louis is a region firmly footed in both the future and the past. Almost 27 percent of St. Louisans were younger than age 18 in 1990 -- ranking the region 13th highest among 35 metropolitan areas in the proportion of our population who are children. At the same time, nearly 13 percent of Our population was aged 65 or older in 1990 -- ranking St. Louis eighth of 35 on It-his variable. Only 60 percent of our population is of traditional "working age." The median age of our population is Increasing, as IS true across the nation. It was slightly more than 33 years in 1990 compared to 28 years in 1970.

Race and Ethnicity
Just more than 80 percent of St. Louis area residents are white; 18 percent are African-American; and two percent are of other races. Of those who are of other races, more than half are Asian-Americans. Hispanics, who may be of any race, comprise one percent of the population.

Persons of color are more likely to reside in communities in the core of the region than in outlying areas. African-Americans comprise 47 percent of the City of St. Louis' residents, 27 percent of persons living in St. Clair County, and 14 percent of those living in St. Louis County. But they represent less than seven percent of the population of the region's outer ring counties. Many of the neighborhoods of the urban core are themselves highly segregated. More than half (54 percent) of the region's African-Americans live in Census block groups that are 90 percent black.⁶ Using this 90 percent threshold as an indicator of "racial isolation," it is calculated that St. Louis has the fifth most severe racial isolation rate of the nation's 50 largest metropolitan areas.⁷ Isolation is also manifest in the rate of disparity in the region across other socioeconomic variables. A comparison of the region to 34 other metros - using an index of 15 economic, social, and health indicators - finds St. Louis fourth most severe in disparity between African-Americans and whites.⁸

Race relations is one of the most troublesome issues before the St. Louis region -- referenced in the recent Peirce report as "a tough, seemingly intractable problem.⁹ A number of small- and larger-scale efforts have come forward to address the problem through civic, groups and interdenominational faith associations, and other sponsors.

Employment
Caught up with the nation in what some are calling the "most profound transformation since the Industrial Revolution," St. Louis' economy is in a state of remarkable change. The region's historic competitive advantage was based on its location near the center of the country and the availability of natural resources conducive to the production and distribution of both durable and nondurable goods. The region was built on manufacturing, which comprised 50 percent of all employment in 1950.

Service sector employment outstripped manufacturing in the St. Louis economy during the 1980s, and continues to enjoy disproportionate rates of job growth, In 1995, 30 percent of the region's 1.3 million jobs were in the services sector. Retail jobs comprised another 20 percent; manufacturing accounted for 16 percent; and 12 percent of the total were government jobs. Transportation / public utilities, financial services, wholesaling, and construction each represented between 5 and 6 percent of metropolitan employment. Most prominent among service occupations were health care (124,000) and business services (66,000) jobs. Nearly one-third of all 1994 business service employment is found in temporary service agencies.¹⁰

In relationship to the economic dimensions of sustainability, it is important to note that service sector jobs, on average, pay less than do manufacturing jobs. Hourly wages for goods-producing jobs in the region in the third quarter of 1996 averaged $16.42, compared to $11.17 for service-producing jobs. The gap may be narrowing, however. Goods-producing wages have been declining for the past three quarters, while service sector wages have been rising for the past two.¹¹

Overall, St. Louis' has been a slow-growth economy during the past three decades, due in part to sluggish population growth, the retraction of its manufacturing base, the unavailability of investment capital, jurisdictional fragmentation, and other factors.¹²

Among 35 metropolitan areas, where first is best and 35th is last, St. Louis ranked 25th in job growth, 26th in business growth, and 23rd in capital availability in a 1996 assessment.¹³ An analysis of industry luster activity conducted around the same time for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development identifies -strong growth., potential for the region in the emerging new Electronics/Communications and Medical Products industry clusters, which are tied to the region's chemical, defense, biomedical technology and health services base Area economic development leaders are targeting resources to support this growth activity, concentrated in a technology corridor that runs through downtown St. Louis West into St. Louis County and northwest into areas of research and technology development in St. Charles 'county Also of note is the establishment of a World Trade Center in St. Louis County to focus activity on expanding the region's export base and identifying new markets for existing businesses. Currently. St. Louis ranks 20th among 35 metropolitan areas in foreign export of goods.¹⁴

Income
Per capita personal income for St. Louis area residents was $23,676 in 1994 -- about "average" for metropolitan regions. 'When income is adjusted for cost of living, however, St. Louis ranks third' best 35 metropolitan areas with which we compete for people and for jobs. interesting, less than 59 percent of total personal income in the region comes from, wages and salaries however. A full 18 percent of income is derived from assets (dividends, interest, rent) -- ranking St. Louis second among metropolitan areas on this variable.¹⁵

Although St. Louis is an affordable community for most residents, the level of economic. disparity between those with comfortable incomes and those without, is a problem of some magnitude. Unemployment and labor force participation rates tell part --- although not all -- of this story. In 1996, 56,000 persons -- 4.2 percent of the region's labor force - were listed as "unemployed." In census tracts 'concentrated, for the most part-in the core of the region) however unemployment rates exceeded 25 percent. Not included in these figures are those individuals who are not actively looking for work, for whatever reason In the eight-county area 45,270 households are currently supported by public assistance income from the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families program which we commonly refer as "welfare."¹⁶

Local and State Government
The St. Louis region is a bi-state area: the City St. Louis at the core surrounded by urban, suburban and rural counties in both Missouri and Illinois. Local and state, governments are important to the region. In fact, among major metropolitan areas, St. Louis "excels" in the number of its local governments. In 1996 there were 771 units of local government in the St. Louis region - for every 1 00.000 resident Of these 771, approximately 220 are general purpose units of government.

When compared to 34 other metropolitan areas St. Louis ranks first, in the per capita number of units of local government with taxing authority. Nonetheless. local government revenue, spending, and debt are very low in St. Louis. The region ranked 35th (lowest) in local government revenue as a percent of total personal income, 33rd in local government spending. and 33rd in the ratio of local government debt to local revenue in 1992.¹⁷

Federal Resources
The picture is somewhat different in relationship to federal spending. St. Louis (which is a part of two federal regions) ranked third among 35 metropolitan areas in federal funding per capita in 1995. Total federal resources flowing into the region that year were $18.8 billion - approximately 15 percent of the region's total, gross domestic product. The chart at right summarizes the federal agencies and departments with resource totaling more than $5 million each flowing into the region in 1995.¹⁸

II. Regional Goals

These and other trends were part of the backdrop from which St. Louis developed a new regional transportation plan in 1994, with the intent of strengthening the connection between this key system and the region's economic, social, and environmental quality of life.

More than 200 citizens and representatives of diverse interest groups worked with the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council to articulate a series of goals for Transportation Redefined. These goals describe a future in which St. Louis enjoys:

• a strong position in the national and global marketplace, ensured through strategic economic development, competitive employment opportunities, a well trained workforce, and responsible asset management;
• a sustainable and growing economy ground in wise and coordinated use of physical, environmental, social, and agricultural resources;
• a clean and healthy environment;
• safe neighborhoods, communities, and thoroughfares;
• varied and valued outlets for recreation, cultural expression, and learning;
• equity, choice, and opportunity for all citizens;
• efficient and balanced patterns of growth and development which respect the land, the citizenry, the history, and the strategic location of this region.¹⁹

Clearly, achieving these goals will require a concerted effort bringing together varied interests and aligning public and private investments across a number of systems and fronts. The Metropolitan Initiative specifically considers how the federal government can be a partner in making such a future happen.

III. The Possibilities

Upon us are the fast-paced and compounding complexities, of the 21^st Century, where competing metropolitan areas are the engines of American vitality - the major generators of economic and community wealth and the biggest consumers of natural and manmade resources. The public and private protocols and practices that worked comfortably (if not always perfectly well) to maintain 20th Century America in global preeminence may need some significant adjustment in order to support the nation' in the heightened, interlocking competition of the new Century. How will metropolitan areas like St. Louis strategically harness the opportunities and energies needed to address the challenges ahead? And, in the new metro-driven economy, what will be the most appropriate role for the federal government in supporting superior regional performance and advancing national prosperity?

Recently, a panel convened by the National Academy of Public Administration undertook a year of research and a scan of eight American localities to bring focus to this latter question, as it relates specifically to economic development concerns. Their conclusion, put forward in the 1996 report, A Path to Smatter Economic Development: Reassessing the Federal Role, is that the federal government should help make state and community development efforts "smarter' by means of three coordinated sets of activities. In the authors words, these are:

• learning - Ensuring that economic development efforts are well-informed.
• leveraging - Offering incentives that will encourage states and localities to do a better job than they would otherwise.
• linking - Helping regions, states, and localities mobilize the highly diverse resources necessary for effective economic development, and removing impediments that make it difficult to organize 'packages of services. ²⁰

This framework lends itself well to the questions before the Metropolitan Initiative: it allows us to cast metropolitan areas as the lead actors in the pursuit of a more globally competitive and responsible future (Regional players are the ones who must learn, leverage, and link...) and it accommodates a variety of support roles for the federal government -"refocusing its work," as the NAPA report suggests, "on the activities that it can do

In order to organize and understand the opportunities and choices before the St. Louis region, we have adopted this three-part framework and added a fourth set of activities, which we believe will be necessary if the improvements initiated in the first three are to be sustained:

• realigning - Institutionalizing policies, protocols, and practices that redirect decision-making toward present and future market realities, with an emphasis is on equitable outcomes, improved efficiencies, and regional accountability.

What follows is a summary of some of the activities currently underway in the St. Louis region that reflect immediate possibilities for collaboration in enhancing quality of life across economic, social, and environmental dimensions, consistent with the concepts of the President's Council Sustainable Development. We have also indicated some areas in which the Congress and the federal agencies can support these possibilities by stepping forward as policy makers, educators, and partners. How well we embrace and advance these possibilities is a matter of regional will.

Opportunity Area One: Learning
The St. Louis region enjoys a current fascination with learning about itself and its relative strengths in the global marketplace. During the time period 1996-1997, no,. fewer than six regional reports have documented aspects of this topic, using a wealth of secondary resources and informational interviews. These included East-West Gateway's 1996 regional strategic assessment, Where We Stand, HUD's 1996 report on St. Louis' industry clusters and the region's role in the national economy; the 1997 Peirce report, A Call to Action; FOCUS St. Louis' updated report St. Louis Currents 1997, bench marking activities underway by Sustainable St. Louis; and the regional indicators now being assembled along multiple dimensions by St. Louis 2004. Corn lamenting these written reports is a broadened civic discourse regarding who we are and what we want to be, convened by a vast cast of interests through St. Louis 2004 and a number of smaller "visioning" efforts.

In order for these activities to truly inform sustainable regional improvements, they; will need to be better coordinated and focused on a common set of metropolitan priorities, supported by cross-cutting regional performance standards and methods for measuring progress. Federal agencies can assist in this effort by advancing a set of benchmarks and outcome measures for the nation which can be adapted and flexibly applied to assess performance in metropolitan areas. Among these measures are evolving global standards for efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and environmental responsibility to which all competitive firms and economies must aspire.

In another area of learning, area colleges and universities have been quietly hard at work for several years documenting the effectiveness of discrete collaborative approaches to such issues as crime prevention, alcohol and other drug abuse prevention, workforce development efforts, school-based community improvement economic conversion, and pollution control. We do not know enough about what really works - and doesn't work - in achieving sustainable outcomes, but we could do la much better job of sharing the research findings we do have. The federal government, which has funded many of these university-based efforts through the departments of Justice, Education, Health and Human Services, Defense, Energy, and others, should take a lead in assembling these important findings and disseminating them among metropolitan areas to inform strategy and program development.

Also, the federal government can lead and encourage state and private sector partners to invest strategically in research and technology strategies, to be developed in public and private sector universities and r&d facilities, that will connect and integrate their, region's many industrial and intellectual clusters in a re-energizing dynamic, strengthen the links between the region's leading firms and the information-based global economy, and advance technological breakthroughs across a range of physical, social, and environmental dimensions. According to the Peirce report, this may be one of our most critical opportunity areas, for "universities and colleges are clearly the St. Louis region's richest resource, its most promising source of new ideas and capacities, as it copes with troubling questions of its future and viability.²¹

Opportunity Area Two: Leveraging
The findings of the regional strategic assessment report regarding St. Louis' receipt of federal capital and operating grants suggest that the region has historically done a very successful job in leveraging federal funds using local and state dollars. If we choose to limit ourselves as a region to past practices, which skillfully made the best of generous federal/local match requirements and the pursuit of big-ticket demonstration grants, however, we may find the future less bright for at least two reasons. First, federal funding in many areas is more limited - characterized by shifting Congressional priorities, cut-backs, and increasing use of close-ended block grants to devolve responsibility to the states. And secondly, the long-term approach needed to carry the region through the 2l^st Century will require more sustainable and strategic investment patterns which are less heavily dependent on tax dollars and in which public and private dollars are co-invested to stimulate a desired market response with an optimal return.

Several possibilities exist in the St. Louis region to better leverage financial resources toward sustainable results, but many of these are isolated and limited in scope. Among them are:

• state-designated enterprise communities in the City of St. Louis and St. Louis County in Missouri and Madison and St. Clair counties in Illinois, federally designated enterprise communities in both Missouri and Illinois;
• a tool box of public incentives for private sector investment in disadvantaged communities, including the Missouri First Linked Deposit program, the Neighborhood Assistance Program, the Community Reinvestment Act, and locally-developed carrots;
• TRACER (Transportation Corridor for Economic Renewal) along the existing MetroLink line in Missouri, where local, state, and private sector interests are working together to develop a strategic investment plan that will better position the corridor in the regional economy.

Hard-hitting realizations about their not being "enough to go around' are forcing St. Louis players to identify and exploit better opportunities to leverage financial and other resources in such areas as transportation and sewer system improvements, workforce development, new technologies, and education. Leadership on this front is being assumed by both public interests (with a focus on the region's competing infrastructure demands) and by private interests, motivated by concerns about the availability of capital for business and market development. The federal government can be a helpful partner by assisting and encouraging metropolitan areas like St. Louis to adopt a full-cost accounting approach to future public and private investments, to identify innovative resource streams, to make smarter use of existing tax credits and regulatory waivers, and to understand how to capture savings in one part of the market and reinvest them in another part of the market to achieve greater overall efficiencies. (The location efficient mortgage program is one, but not the only, example of this kind of funding "innovation.')

Information regarding best practices in the use of intermediaries such as community development corporations and other community-based brokers in leveraging funds and securing innovative financing packages would also be of use. A number of important revitalization and community empowerment efforts are under way through neighborhood-based organizations in the region -- but, as a whole, they have not been supported as valued partners in the larger regional scheme of things.

The federal government can also play a key role - as was suggested in the NAPA report on "smarter economic development" - by incentivizing and rewarding metropolitan areas who collaborate in developing long-term plans, and by discouraging the pervasive concentration on "firms and deals, [which] makes it difficult to get to scale and achieve the synergy necessary for effective and sustainable development.²²

Opportunity Area Three: Linking
Several important collaborative efforts have emerged in the St. Louis metropolitan area that focus on linking - or "packaging" - strategy elements into a coordinated program as a way of improving customer access, maximizing efficiency, and decreasing duplication and wasteful use of resources. These include:

• initiatives to link economic and other capital improvements in coordinated site development around transportation facilities (such as the transit-oriented development plans now being developed and implemented around existing MetroLink stations in Missouri and planned stations in Illinois);
• programs to link housing, human services, and job training in a joint development, such as those now being implemented both by private developers and the St. Louis County Housing Authority in the area;
• one-stop shops to co-locate a range of job placement and career counseling services (such as the region's model program in St. Charles County);
• programs to link job placement, family counseling, continuing education, and neighborhood safety programs around a community school setting, as has been the trademark of the Caring Communities Program in Missouri neighborhoods of the region and in selected school - university partnerships in Illinois;
• initiatives to link park and natural resource conservation with job creation, as is being done in the "Sustainable Development Zone" along a Mississippi riverfront bike trail in north St. Louis City;
• efforts to link workforce development, job placement and retention, child care, transportation, and other services in integrated and customer-specific projects, such as those being supported by the St. Louis Regional Jobs Initiative.

Local, state, federal and private sector resources have found their way into each of these "linking" activities. It is notable, however, that the State of Missouri has been one of the lead innovators and risk-takers in the St. Louis metropolitan area in supporting such programs. To allow for greater flexibility in program development, the State is now rolling out a "Family and Community Maintenance Organization' that will serve as a mechanism to integrate previously-discrete categorical funding streams to support locally-designed service packages that empower and support families.

Research suggests that those integrative efforts that will be the most successful will be the ones which are also closely tied to metropolitan economic and social factors, and community priorities for change. Federal agencies - who have also come forward to support such collaborative efforts through a variety of demonstration programs out of HUD, HHS, FTA, and EDA - can assist metropolitan areas by making best case examples available and by requiring that program demonstrations reflect local issues and capacities, rather than cookie-cutter replications of popular projects.

Opportunity Area Four: Realigning
In the long-term, the most critical challenges before the St. Louis area are those that require us to realign our planning, decision-making, and investment processes from a present-day, consumption-based orientation to a future-orientation that acknowledges and responds to demographic and economic transformation while making better use of the natural, built, and human resources we already have In the data-driven and competitive environment of the 21st Century, efforts to address these challenges will be accompanied by a demand for higher--efficiencies and greater accountability for results

The opportunities enumerated below have been precipitated both by national and global changes and by failures in the "old way" of doing business that leave us now with no choice but to change. These areas include the opportunity to:

• reorient economic development: from localized deal-making to sustainable value-added at of an information- and technology- based global economy
• redefine the region's transportation system from a network of streets and roads to an intermodal transportation-, system that can advance economic, social, and environmental needs,
• realign our educational system to-, more closely serve the technical and critical thinking requirements of the new economy and to accommodate unprecedented opportunities for lifelong learning and productivity;
• reengineer our 'welfare system' from a bureaucracy that distributes subsistence levels of disposal income to, a public investment that enables self-sufficiency based on the restoration of individual dignity, family cohesion-,,, the acquisition of skills and Knowledge, and the accumulation of wealth-²³
• reconnect the urban core -- which is increasingly depleted of resources - to the regional economic and social mainstream.
• rethink our concept of "community" and the choices communities offer for work mobility, housing, recreation and health in light of an aging population, increasing numbers of persons of differing physical abilities, and trends toward smaller and more diverse households;
• reorient our relationship with the natural and built environment from activities that focus on consumption and disposal to activities that focus or preservation and reuse.

In the St. Louis region, a number of ;initiatives are underway that represent the beginnings of a collaborative response to these concerns. Some of these were referenced in earlier sections on "leveraging" and "linking" in the metropolitan area. The Federal government plays a direct or indirect role in several of these efforts, either as policy maker who mandates change at the state level (as in the case of welfare reform and the state's implementation plan for air quality improvement in the St. Louis area) or as a funder of discrete and discretionary remedial programs. Although each of these issues are regional challenges, only in the instance of transportation planning does the Federal government formally acknowledge, support, and reward metropolitan approaches to problem-solving.

This is what is perhaps most important about the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act: it establishes the vision of an intermodal system that supports economic, social, and environmental goals and rests responsibility and authority for realigning this system to better meet the needs of the future in a metropolitan planning and decision making process that must be carried out in cooperation with both the consumers and providers of transportation services. In St. Louis, this has provided the underpinnings for a new 20-year approach, Transportation Redefined, which is supporting a shift @in regional priorities toward collaborative decision-making, regional equity, and fiscal accountability.

One of the most valuable outcomes of the national Metropolitan Initiative would be a reinforcement and expansion of federal policy and partnership activity to explicitly challenge and empower diverse stakeholders within metropolitan regions to act in concert. In a public policy context, this may mean taking what has been best about the ISTEA process and adapting it to evolving Federal policy in other areas - particularly those where no regional plan currently exists in St. Louis: economic development, workforce development, resource conservation, housing, land use, human services. This does not imply constituting a formal public-sector response to these issues, but instead seeks to use federal policy to catalyze (or reinforce) a concerted private / public response that coordinates interests and realigns investments.

As partners, federal agency representatives should create and exploit any meaningful opportunities to "cross over" the bounds of categorical planning and funding to develop multi-agency approaches to metropolitan problems that can inspire and inform regional efforts. In addition, regional and local federal agency representatives should establish metropolitan alliances and advisory boards that will position them to work more effectively with regional players, including encouraging metro-level responses on the part of state agencies who have Decreasing responsibility for local investments of federal funds. In addition, federal agencies the Congress should provide financial, regulatory, and other incentives for metropolitan areas who take collaborative steps to realign major systems to meet the needs of the future.

¹Calculations by staff of the East-West Gateway Coordinating council, reported in Transportation Redefined. A Plan for the Region's Future St. Louis 1 995 Page 17

² East-West Gateway analysts forecast' that St. Louis County will achieve- its highest population count around the year 2000; with very slow declines thereafter through the year 201 5 Reported in Transportation Redefined.

³ 1994 population estimates of the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. A full 70 percent of households In the region are family households. Of these, nearly 18 percent are headed by a woman with no spouse present.

⁴East-West Gateway Coordinating-Council. Transportation Redefined: A Plan for the Region's Future St. Louis, 1995 Pages 55-60

⁵Transportation Redefined Page- 19

⁶ East-West Gateway Coordinating Council, Community Solutions: From Poverty to Mobility. St. Louis, 1993. Page 14.

⁷ 1990 computations can be found in Dan Gilmour and Stephen Doig's article, "Segregation Forever?' in American Demographics, January 1992

⁸East-West Gateway Coordinating Council, Where We Stand. The Strategic Assessment the St. Louis Region. St. Louis, 1996. Pages 56-60,

⁹ Neal Peirce and Curtis Johnson. 'The Peirce Report: A Call to Action.' St. Louis Post-Dispatch March 11, 1997.

¹⁰ Figures from an analysis of the regional economy prepared for the St. Louis Regional Jobs Initiative by Mt. Auburn Associates.

¹¹ "RCGA Economic Update: Quarterly Economic Report." St. Louis. December 1996.

¹² A casual review of population trends in the region over the past 15 years shows a population increase of 102,883 -- or 4.4 percent. In fact, the region lost approximately 124,000 residents due to outmigration during that time period. Natural increases (births minus deaths) compensated for the loss and left St. Louis with a slight net gain.

¹³East-West Gateway Coordinating Council Where We Stand: The Strategic Assessment St. Louis Region. St. Louis. 1996. Pages 21-23

¹⁴Where We Stand, Page 21

¹⁵Where We Stand Page 25,

¹⁶Data from the Missouri Department, of Social Services and the Illinois Department of Public Aid

¹⁷Where We Stand. Pages 29-31.

¹⁸Data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report 1995.

¹⁹ East-West Gateway Coordinating Council. Transportation Redefined: A Plan for the Region's Future. St. Louis, 1995. Page 37.

²⁰ National Academy of Public Administration. A Path to Smarter Economic Development: Reassessing the Federal/ Role. Washington, DC. 1996. Page 44.

²¹ Neal Peirce and Curtis Johnson. "The Peirce Report" A Call to Action.' St. Louis Post Dispatch. March 9 - 16, 1997.

²² A Path to Smarter Economic Development, page 45

²³ See Michael Sherraden, Assets and the Poor: A New American Welfare Policy. Armock, N.Y. M.E. Sharpe, Inc., l99l